Abstracts of Current Issue
The Effects of Globalizing Iranian Economy on Automobile Industry
Ali Asqar Esfandyāri
Imān Ahmadyān
The main target of this research is investigating the effect of Iran joining to world trad organization (WTO) and it,s effect on automobile fabricating. For this purpose, after considering models of internal demand, demands for imports, supplying exports and domestic supply from two indicators of international trad level (LIT) and integrating international trad (IIT) was used as universalization indextors. This scales in demand functions, import, export, and supplying automobile are employed as explanatory variables that mentioned functions were estimated on ADL method and results of estimations show that joining of Iran to WTO affect domestic demands and imports positively and has no effect on exports and has negative effect on domestic supply of automobile.
Applying the Deductive-Nomological Pattern of Explanation in Economics
Seyed Mohammad Rezā Amiri Tehrāni
This article discusses the possibility that the adequacy conditions
could be satisfied by economics. The main question is: dose economics possess such conditions that make the D-N explanation possible?
Economics as an inexact science can be demarcated from exact sciences. Generalizations in inexact sciences are of the types: 1.Approximate, 2.probabilistic or statistical, 3.rough, 4.modal or counterfactual, 5.implicitly qualified laws. Regarding the apriority and abstractness of the economic postulates, it seems that economics satisfies the first adequacy condition, i.e. argument thesis.
Since Hempel and Oppenhiem intend to take generality rather than universality as a necessary condition for a theory although economic theories do not contain universal generalizations, they satisfy the law thesis. In relation to testability of explanans, because economic theories are analytic, their truth can not be verified by empirical evidence. On the other hand, since economic postulates are apriori, they are not empirical. Therefore economic theories have no empirical content and eventually economics does not satisfy adequacy conditions of deductive – nomological explanation.
The Structure of World Cement Market and the National Tariff Regimes
Vahid Bozorgi
Mir Abdollāh Hosseini
The promotion of cement production and trade requires a good knowledge of its market structure. Having analyzed the structure of world cement market during 2001-05 through Concentration Ratio and Herfindahl Index, the author has examined national tariff regimes for cement.
According to the author's findings, the import-side structure of the world cement market is an oligopolistic one. In addition, during 2001-05, as the monopolistic power of cement importers increased, the structure tilted to a tight oligopoly. In contrast, the export-side structure of the world cement market entails a monopolistic competition. Furthermore, during 2001-05, while the monopolistic power of cement exporters increased, the structure remained intact. A comparison of the export- and import-side of the world cement market suggests that the export-side structure has been far more competitive.
As regards the national tariff regimes, Lebenon has the highest MFN tariff rate for cement. The MFN tariff rates of the US, EU, Nigeria and South Korea, as the four top importers of cement, have been 0, 1.7, 15 and 5 respectively. Thus, major cement importers have mostly imported cement at a minimum MFN tariff rate with a view to protect their forward industries. On the other hand, the MFN tariff rates of China, Turkey, Canada and Thailand, as the four top exporters of cement, have been 8, 1.7, 0 and 10 respectively. Due to their export advantage in cement production and trade, a great number of major cement exporters have levied a low MFN tariff rates. Iran enjoys self-sufficiency in cement production with a 4 percent tariff rate which can be regarded as a reasonable rate.
The Estimation of Mutual Trade Elasticities between Iran and the EU
Mir Abdollāh Hosseini
In this article, econometric models such as panel data and simultaneous equations have been used to measure the income, price and substitution elasticities of mutual trade between Iran and the EU. The findings are as follows:
Application of panel data and simultaneous equations reveals that the direct price elasticities of the EU members' imports from Iran are -1.13 and -1.16 respectively and the same elasticities for Iran's imports from the EU members are -1.39 and -1.3 . The far higher direct price elasticities of Iran's imports illustrate that a decrease of 1% in the price of Iran's imports from the EU and vice versa will result, ceteris paribus, in a far more increase in Iran's imports than the EU imports.
Similarly, the application of panel data and simultaneous equations reveals that the substitution price elasticities of the EU members' imports from Iran are -0.9 and -1.2 respectively and the same elasticities for Iran's imports from the EU members are -1.64 and -1.72 . The far higher substitution price elasticities of Iran's imports illustrate that a decrease of 1% in the price of Iran's imports from the EU and vice versa in comparison with their other trade partners will result, ceteris paribus, in a far more increase in Iran's imports than the EU imports, taking into account their imports from other trade partners.
An Analysis of the Effects of IT on Foreign Trade in Iran
Ali Gholāmi
electronic commerce facilitate the obstacles of trade between nations. With the development of EDI, Trade points, ASYCUDA, foreign trade will be promoted. For the estimation of the effect of IT on trade, a Gravity model used with annual panel data of 47 countries. The results shows that GDP, degree of openness, distance and the extent of using IT have positive effect on the promotion of foreign trade in Iran.
A Study on the Insurance Premium Using Pricing Model for Insurance Risks Under Wang Transformation
Hamid Rezā Farhādi
Ahmad Salāhnezhād Qal’eh Jouqi
There are significant similarities between some financial risks and insurance liabilities as far as the contract types are concerned, examples of such similar contracts are the option contract and the stop-loss reinsurance contract. These similarities have grabbed the attention of the researchers in finding a unified model, for the pricing of both the financial risks and the insurance liabilities.
In this paper, we will first at some of the methods in evaluation and pricing of the insurance risks.We then introduce the Wang transform which provides a unified approach for the evaluation of financial and insurance risks. This transformation is defined by
where is the survival function of the loss distribution, is the distribution function of the standard normal random variable, and is the risk parameter. This unified approach for the evaluation of the insurance risk parameter will then be applied for the evaluation of the premium in the non-life insurance contracts. Specifically, we have applied the Wang premium principle on a collection of some health insurance original loss data to calculate the premium.
A Review on Classical Economics and It's Schools
Seyed Hossein Mirjalili
the mainstream of economic thought during 1776 to 1871, coined classical political economy in which a group of economists mainly from Britain, adopted economic liberalism, private property, minimum state intervention, competition and utilitarianism as principles for the analysis of economic policy.
Classical political economy includes six schools of thought as follows: Manchester school, French liberal school, Classical utilitarianism, currency school, banking school and free banking school. In this paper the principles, reprensentatives and policy recommendation of each school will be discuscussed.The classical schools revived in 20th century.
Abstracts of Previous Issue
General Relationship of Economics and Philosophy
Yadollāh Dādgar
the relationship of economics and philosophy has a long history, although it has become significant since 1920s. The effect of logical positivism on economics in 1920s and 1930s and its persistence to mainstream economics in 1950s and 1960s and development of philosophy of science at the end of 20th century added to the importance of this relationship. This paper will analyze the primary relationships of economics and philosophy.
Analysis and Estimation of dual merchandise trade potential of Iran and ECO members
Mir Abdollah Hosseini
In this article, econometric models such as panel data and simultaneous equations have been used to measure the income, price and substitution elasticities of mutual trade between Iran and the EU. The findings are as follows:
Application of panel data and simultaneous equations reveals that the direct price elasticities of the EU members' imports from Iran are -1.13 and -1.16 respectively and the same elasticities for Iran's imports from the EU members are -1.39 and -1.3 . The far higher direct price elasticities of Iran's imports illustrate that a decrease of 1% in the price of Iran's imports from the EU and vice versa will result, ceteris paribus, in a far more increase in Iran's imports than the EU imports.
Similarly, the application of panel data and simultaneous equations reveals that the substitution price elasticities of the EU members' imports from Iran are -0.9 and -1.2 respectively and the same elasticities for Iran's imports from the EU members are -1.64 and -1.72 . The far higher substitution price elasticities of Iran's imports illustrate that a decrease of 1% in the price of Iran's imports from the EU and vice versa in comparison with their other trade partners will result, ceteris paribus, in a far more increase in Iran's imports than the EU imports, taking into account their imports from other trade partners.
An attempt to know the true meaning of inflation
A Study and critique of existing definitions
Ahmad Ketābi
Inflation is one of the greatest economic problems of our era.
The present article is an attempt to introduce, classify, evaluate and criticize the various definitions of inflation presented by different economists.
To do this, 33 definitions of inflation are offered, classified in four categories as follows, then their strong and weak points are analysed:
1. Definitions based on Quantity theory of money.
2. Definitions in which inflation is regarded as an imbalance between supply and demand.
3. Definitions in which inflation is regarded as a general and continuous increase of prices.
4. Miscellaneous definitions.
At the end, a distinction is made between inflation and over-pricing.
An inquiry in to the relationship between economic competitiveness and globalization
Sayed Ehsān Khāndoozi
Abstract: This paper argues the interactions between globalization and national competitiveness. The subject has not been discussed specifically in Iranian economy according to its newly emerging conception and theory. After reviewing globalization dimensions and effects, we concentrate on how the new conception of competitiveness was come to place in international trade sphere. Using Michael Porter theory of competitiveness, the paper introduces the key factors for improving economic competitiveness at global era.
Estimation of potential output in Iranian economy
saeed dehghān khāvari
for the estimation of potential output, I used four methods of time trend, Hodrick – Prescott filter method, production function and VAR method for annually data. The results are close to each other. Oil shock caused positive output gap in war period 1960 to 2005 and negative output gap in war period (1980- 1989) in particular years.
Forerunner Schools of Economic Thought
Seyed Hossein Mirjalili
The dominant approach in the history of economic thought's texts is to explain economic thought of individual economist. Although individualistic approach has its advantage, we may classify and analyze economic thoughts by using schools of thought's approach and it has it's advantages.
In this paper, we analyzed: Salamanca school, mercantilism and phisiocray as forerunner schools of economic thought and explain the founder, representative thinkers, principles, dominance period, critical evaluation and eventually the revival of mentioned schools in recent decades.
Forecasting Demand for Women Labor During Fourth' Development Plan in Iran
Leila Za’farānchi
Among the major policies of the fourth economic development plan of I.R. IRAN, there is a special attention toward creating job opportunities and reduction of unemployment rate, especially for women. The increasing percent of educated women states that, they would have grater portion in supplying professional labor force. So in the fourth economic development plan the characteristics of the labor force supply would face major changes and the portion of educated labor force (specially for women) will increase. This fact indicates that in future, creating more jobs, which are familiar with labor force requirements, is an undeniable necessity.
On the other hand, with regard to theories, which explain the influencing factors on firms’ demand to female labor force, studying of the sectors, which are more potent to employ them, is necessary.
In this survey we will study the trend of female labor force presence in three main economic sectors: Agriculture, Industry & services; while we introduce the different opinions about the characteristics and differences of both genders.
Based upon theoretical principles, the selected variables, which in this study are supposed to influence the employment, are: Value Added, real wages, number of educated women & male labor force.
Vector Error Correction (VEC) method is used to econometrics estimations. For this, first the number of long-term relations was derived by Johensen co integration test from VAR model and then the coefficient of each variable within this model was computed (by Eviews 3.0).
In the fourth economic development plan of I.R. IRAN it is aimed to decrease the women unemployment rate by 9.3%. To achieve such a goal the number of employed women must rise from 2,906,622 in year 2004 to 4,220,826 in the end of 5 years plan (2009). Based upon this study, if the previous trend is maintained and basic and structural changes do not take place, the number of employed women in year 2009 would be 3,051,589. Compared with the total female labor force supply, which has been predicted by the plan; the female unemployment number would be then 1,714,635 and the rate would pass 30 percent, which is considerably more than the beginning year of the plan (17.8%).
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